"The run game is anemic!"
"We need to make a move for Marshawn Lynch, ASAP"
Despite the Packers "run game troubles", we must take a tempered look at the Packers strategy Monday night before we hit the panic button.
1st Downs | 21 | 18 |
Passing 1st downs | 16 | 11 |
Rushing 1st downs | 4 | 2 |
1st downs from Penalties | 1 | 5 |
3rd down efficiency | 4-10 | 3-9 |
4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Total Plays | 60 | 48 |
Total Yards | 379 | 276 |
Passing | 316 | 199 |
Comp-Att | 34-45 | 16-27 |
Yards per pass | 7.0 | 7.4 |
Rushing | 63 | 77 |
Rushing Attempts | 15 | 18 |
Yards per rush | 4.2 | 4.3 |
Red Zone (Made-Att) | 2-3 | 1-4 |
Penalties | 18-152 | 5-38 |
Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
Defensive / Special Teams TDs | 0 | 1 |
Possession | 35:49 | 24:11 |
Statistically speaking, neither team was "effective" running the ball when you look for the bench-mark 100 yds/ game. But look closer. The Packers averaged 4.2 yds/ carry suggesting that they were fairly efficient when called upon. Also, the Packers were able to acrue 21 first downs in the game and outgain the Bears, 379-276. Despite Brandon Jackson's anemic 1.7 yds/ carry, the Packers somehow managed to move the ball, but how was this possible without such a strong running game?
A pragmatic football fan should look at the game Monday night in closer detail before jumping to conclusions. The Packers were able to achieve the results of an effective run game through an efficient ball control passing game. Brandon Jackson's 1.7 yds/ carry does not account for his 4 receptions for 27 yds (3 of which were 1st downs), nor does the Packer's 4.2 yds/ carry account for the high percentage quick game routes completed throughout the game.
Empty the Backfield
Throughout the game we witnessed the Packers utilizing a diverse spread package of formations, using 4-5 WR often. This created numerous mismatches, pinning LB's against the Packers deep receiving corps. Throw in the match up problems Jermichael Finley creates in the slot on the lone WR of a Trips set and you can see how the Packers were able to move the ball with relative ease. Their limiting factor as we all could see was penalties (18-152)
By spreading the defense through horizontal alignment, the Packers force the Bears to show their hand and can determine the coverage and blitz scheme fairly easily. Aaron Rodgers did a masterful job of completing 76% of his passes to carve up a stingy Bear defense and the Packers receivers were able to attack the holes in the Bears Tampa 2 scheme to continue to move the chains. Even if the Packers had a more "effective" run game, the still would have underperformed their results. The Packers averaged 7.0 yds/ attempt. Even on the best of nights, the Packers could hope for 5.0 yds/ carry in their run game.
What happened to the West Coast philosophy?
During the reign of the 49ers and any Bill Walsh disciple who followed, people were conscious of the West Coast philosophy in using the pass game to set up and replace the run. Routinely West Coast maestros ran effective offensive attacks averaging around 4.0 yds/carry while hitting a high percentage of 3 step passing combinations. Walsh et al drilled their skill positions to use a timing, based, efficient, ball control passing game that set up the run later on. The idea behind a quick passing attack was no different than that behind a power run game. Control the clock, put your players in favorable positions to succeed and keep your defense off the field. Penalties and special teams gaffes aside, the Packers did just that Monday night.
Trends point to efficient passing
Examine the last 4 Super Bowl Champions/runners-up. The Saints, Colts, Steelers and Cardinals all thrived off an efficient passing attack and strong opportunistic defenses. Though the dynamics of each team were slightly different, their passing attacks were prominent pieces of their offense, ranking 4th, 2nd, 17th and 2nd respectively.
Despite the lack of consistent run games on all of these teams (but the '09 Saints) the teams found offensive and team success consistently. None of these teams had a 1,000 yard rusher and leading rushers Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker (past his prime), and Tim Hightower were not household names but succeeded despite this "lack" of run game.
Land of opportunity
The key for offenses today is to move the ball down the field efficiently and consistently regardless of formation or play type. Teams utilizing a power run scheme as we do in double, a veer option scheme like we see in flexbone teams like Georgia Tech, a spread rushing attack like that of RichRod's Michigan Wolverines or the "air-raid" passing attack like that of once Texas Tech head man mike Leach are all trying to do the same thing: move the ball and score points. The end is always the same despite the various means to get there. The Packers were looking to pass efficiently, using the run game as a compliment to keep the defense honest. Penalties putting the offense in long-yardage situations dictated that Mike McCarthy had to pass the ball to succeed.
What does this mean of Cedarburg football?
The Packer game Monday was a real world example of using an offensive scheme to exploit what the defense gave you regardless of "conventional" wisdom. This can apply to our run first mentality exhibited in both our Double and Spread formations. The Packers passed effectively and nearly at will, when they attempted they struggled at times but also kept the Bears honest. This is essentially the opposite of the approach we have taken thus far. We look to run first since it is our strength and our more efficient means of advancing the ball. We still need to be opportunistic in the pass game and complete passes routinely to continue to do what we do best. That has been our downfall thus far. We are calling pass plays with too many variables unaccounted for, will the protection be executed, is the alignment and spacing correct, will the routes be correct and run crisp, will the QB take the proper footwork and throw the ball to the correct read effectively? With all of our repetitions this year we are still at a point where many of these questions are unanswered. As the Packers demonstrated Monday, a passing game can be used as efficiently as a run game but it takes focus and discipline in practice to see the results in a game. Let's develop the ability to hurt defenses with our potent run game and efficient pass game.